Pitch Black Chase Card Prices Crash in Week One

Pitch Black Chase Card Prices Crash in Week One

One week after Mega Evolution—Pitch Black's July 17 release, verified sales data shows the set's chase cards falling hard. Mega Darkrai ex's Mega Hyper Rare — the card that opened at $996.69 on TCGplayer on release day — sold for just $470 on eBay on July 19, and its Special Illustration Rare counterpart dropped from a $392 auction win on July 14 to $329.99 five days later. Tracker PokemonWizard has the whole set down 28.1% for the week as of July 18.

The drop is real, it is fast, and it is exactly what Pitch Black's own presale and day-one numbers already hinted was coming. Here's the card-by-card breakdown, why the fall happened this quickly, and which price you should actually believe when three different sources disagree.

What is Mega Darkrai ex worth right now?

Mega Darkrai ex's Mega Hyper Rare (#120/084), the only card in Pitch Black to get the MHR treatment at roughly 1-in-1,786 pack odds, has lost more than half its peak value in under three weeks. Beckett News tracked its public eBay sales from a $750 presale transaction on July 1 down through $250 (July 6), $300 and $400 (both July 7), $425 (July 11), and $470 (July 19). Aggregator PokemonWizard, which blends a wider pool of listings rather than single notable sales, put its market price at $198.40 as of July 18.

The Special Illustration Rare version (#116/084), illustrated by AKIRA EGAWA, tells the same story at a higher price tier: a $392 eBay win on July 14 slipped to $329.99 on July 19 and $340 on July 20, according to Beckett. PokemonWizard's blended market price for the same card sat at $290.73 that same week.

Every other tracked chase card moved the same direction. Mega Chandelure ex's SIR (#115/084) is the clearest case: early buyers paid $120 to $125 to be first to own one, but seven tracked eBay sales on July 20 alone ranged from just $46.92 to $65, and PokemonWizard's current market price sits at $52.41 — a drop of more than 50% from the opening-week high.

Card	Rarity	Early/peak sale	Most recent tracked sale	Current market price
Mega Darkrai ex #120	Mega Hyper Rare	$750 (Jul 1, presale)	$470 (Jul 19, eBay)	$198.40
Mega Darkrai ex #116	Special Illustration Rare	$392 (Jul 14, eBay)	$340 (Jul 20, eBay)	$290.73
Morpeko ex #117	Special Illustration Rare	$165 (Jul 6, eBay)	$135 (Jul 7, eBay)	$108.24
Mega Zeraora ex #114	Special Illustration Rare	$99.99 best offer (Jul 19, eBay)	$99.99 (Jul 19, eBay)	$69.22
Mega Chandelure ex #115	Special Illustration Rare	$125 (~Jul 10, eBay)	$46.92–$65, 7 sales (Jul 20, eBay)	$52.41

Sources: Beckett News, published July 20, 2026; PokemonWizard, published July 18, 2026.

Why did Pitch Black prices fall so fast?

Pitch Black's chase cards fell because early supply outran early demand, the same pattern that has hit every Mega Evolution set since the era began, just compressed into fewer days this time. Presale and launch-day prices get set by the smallest, most impatient slice of the market — collectors who need to own a card the moment it exists, bidding against a handful of copies that have reached the secondary market. Once more boxes get opened and more sellers list their pulls, that artificial scarcity evaporates and prices settle toward what the card is actually worth to a broader pool of buyers.

Valusaur previously covered how Mega Evolution chase cards were already cooling before Pitch Black even released, as older sets like Abyss Eye and Ninja Spinner saw their own hype-driven pulls fade within weeks of launch. This is that same pattern repeating on Pitch Black itself, and it's landing faster: the set's Special Illustration Rares had already started losing value within days of release rather than weeks.

There's a second factor at play, too: mislabeled listings. Beckett flagged that three sales of Morpeko ex's SIR (#117) were listed under the wrong card number ("#177"), and that Mega Zeraora ex's plain Ultra Rare (#098) has been mistaken for its far pricier SIR sibling (#114) in at least one $79.99 sale, when most genuine #098 copies sell for under $20. In a set moving this fast, a buyer scanning listings quickly can easily overpay for the wrong card.

Which number should you actually trust?

There is no single "real" price for a card like Mega Darkrai ex right now — there's a day-one TCGplayer snapshot, a handful of notable eBay sales, and a blended market average, and all three tell a different story depending on when you check. TCGplayer showed $996.69 for the Mega Hyper Rare on release day, as Valusaur reported in its day-one price check. Beckett's most recent tracked eBay sale, five days later, was $470. PokemonWizard's blended average across a wider pool of listings puts it at $198.40. None of these numbers is wrong; they're measuring different things — a single early outlier sale, a specific recent transaction, and an average across many.

That gap is the actual lesson here: a single headline price, whether from a marketplace listing or a hype tweet, tells you almost nothing about what a card is worth this week. What matters is the trend across multiple marketplaces over time, which is exactly the kind of view a live price tracker is built for rather than a screenshot. Valusaur pulls TCGplayer and Cardmarket pricing side by side with historical charts, so a $470 eBay sale or a $198 blended average both show up in context instead of as an isolated, misleading number. If you're trying to decide whether to sell a Pitch Black pull or wait, check the trend line, not a single sale.

Is now a good time to buy Pitch Black singles?

Not yet, if you're buying to build a collection rather than to flip a fresh pull. The historical pattern across this Mega Evolution era, which Valusaur has tracked through presale hype and the pull-rate math on opening a booster box, is that singles bottom out three to six weeks after a set's release, once the initial wave of box-breakers has moved their pulls to market. Pitch Black is only one week in and already down close to 30% on aggregate — that's a fast correction, not a finished one. Chandelure ex's SIR losing over half its value in under two weeks, while still moving on seven separate sales in a single day, suggests supply is still climbing faster than demand is settling.

If you already pulled a Mega Darkrai ex and were deciding whether to sell, the data makes the call for you: the best exit windows were in the first 48 hours, not now. Anyone still holding a launch-week pull and hoping for a bounce should expect further softening before this set finds its floor.

FAQ

How much is Mega Darkrai ex worth right now? As of July 18-20, 2026, the Mega Hyper Rare (#120) is valued around $198–$470 depending on the source, with PokemonWizard's blended market price at $198.40 and Beckett's most recent tracked eBay sale at $470 (July 19). The Special Illustration Rare (#116) sits higher, between $290 and $340 across the same window.

Why did Pitch Black card prices drop so quickly? Presale and day-one prices are set by a small pool of early buyers bidding on scarce early listings. As more boxes get opened through the first week, supply catches up to demand and prices fall toward a broader market average, a pattern seen across every prior Mega Evolution set.

Is Pitch Black done cooling off? Not based on the data so far. One week in, the set is down 28.1% on aggregate and some cards like Mega Chandelure ex's SIR have already lost more than half their peak value, with earlier Mega Evolution sets typically bottoming three to six weeks after release.

Why do TCGplayer, eBay, and aggregator prices all show different numbers for the same card? Each source measures something different: TCGplayer's listed price reflects current asks, eBay sales are individual completed transactions that can be outliers, and blended aggregators like PokemonWizard average across a wider pool of listings. Checking a card's price history across sources gives a far more reliable read than any single number.

Should I sell a Pitch Black chase card pull now? If you pulled a high-value card in the first two days after release, that was the strongest window to sell based on this data. A week in, prices have already corrected significantly, and the historical pattern for this era suggests further softening before values stabilize.